Jeremy Bridle writes on Facebook:

I don’t usually make political statements on here but this is really important. If you’re in South Cambs and are thinking of voting Labour or Lib Dem please read this.

I know a lot of people have been unsure between Labour and Lib Dems for the South Cambs anti-Tory tactical vote, and after a lot of research over the past few weeks I strongly believe what it really comes down to is the Conservative->Lib Dem swing voters. In order for anyone other than the Cons to win, 15000 or so of those who voted for them last time have got to vote for somebody else – so the question really is if by some miracle that were to happen who else are they most likely to vote for.

I’ve had several people telling me Labour is the tactical vote because they have previously been coming second over the Libs, without taking into account that that’s because it’s the same body of people who swing Lib Dem and Conservative – if the Tories get the vote the Lib Dems won’t. Optimistically, however, the same is potentially true in reverse: I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that the majority of ex-Conservative voters are much more likely to switch to Lib Dem than Labour (several recent polls have backed this up).

We’re still talking what-iffs here – even if Labour and the Lib Dems had combined at the last election they still won’t have beaten the Conservatives – but if by some miracle enough people switch away from them that they don’t just win by default this time, it’s the Lib Dems they’ll be going to and so them who the rest of us should support. If we’re to oust the Cons it’s these swing voters who will decide it and who we need to rally around, and so in my humble opinion the Lib Dems are logically the best South Cambs anti-Tory vote.

If you’re in a regular Tory area this might also apply to you – check your stats from the last election.

If anyone has any better rational arguments for labour I’d love to hear them – this is my offering, but at the end of the day we all want to get the Tories out and we need a productive dialogue and common strategy.

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